China hand in Indo-US nuke deal

JYOTI MALHOTRA

New Delhi, August 21, 2007 : The `China hand’ continues to reverberate in the current standoff between the Left parties and the Manmohan Singh government over the nuclear deal, with sections of the foreign policy establishment looking for dark connections between the Left’s opposition, Beijing and even Pakistan.

Even if the government survives till the end of the year, two major visits by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China and to George Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas, are now more than likely to fall through the cracks.

For the moment at least, the government bravely insists ``it is not going to back down’’ in the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with the Left parties, but go ahead with talks at the IAEA as well as at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Already, though, speculation is rife that China may introduce a formulation in the NSG that calls for ``criteria-based exemptions’’ for countries like India, who have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, and are therefore seeking a waiver to carry out nuclear commerce.

Meaning, if China puts a spoke in the NSG wheel, which works on the consensus principle, the deal may be in trouble even before it reaches the US Congress for a yes-no vote by December or early next year.

Significantly, Pakistan’s spokesperson Tasnim Aslam told a press conference in Islamabad on Monday that the NSG should introduce such ``criteria-based exemptions’’. Aslam pointed out that the NSG must consider a partner in the global non-proliferation regime and that respond to its enormous energy needs.

But Beijing has denied reports that China was in the process of negotiating a civilian nuclear energy pact with Pakistan on the lines of the Indo-US deal, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying that ``there is no such deal in the making.’’

Analysts here say that the Left opposition to the nuclear deal should also take into account Beijing’s systematic help to Pakistan with its nuclear and missile programme.

They point out that the Left may well be pursuing its anti-imperialist stance, but the reality was that such domestic opposition would only help Beijing scupper the Indo-US deal.

The official `People’s Daily’ last week spoke of ``double standards’’ and how the Indo-US deal would ``damage the existing non-proliferation system.’’

Strategic analyst B. Raman, pointing to the exception made for importing about a thousand workers from China to work on a Reliance pipeline in Andhra Pradesh, says the ministry of home affairs was initially not in favour of allowing the Chinese labour force in.

But, Raman said, CPM leader Sitaram Yechury insisted the Chinese labour force be allowed in.

Noted strategic expert K. Subrahmanyam believes that there is not sufficient understanding of the balance of power world, but too much dependence on Cold War thinking. ``We have to learn to deal with all powers,’’ he said, adding, ``the 123 agreement will allow us to work with all 45 nations who are part of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, not only the US.’’

ENDS