JYOTI MALHOTRA
New Delhi, June 2, 2007 : After three days of talks in the capital, India and the US remained unable to crack the code of their nuclear deal, pushing the final frontier to the meeting next week in Germany between the prime minister and George Bush, and perhaps even beyond.
But unusually, a series of meetings today between the BJP leadership and the Prime Minister on the one hand, and the BJP and the Americans on the other, signalled a political momentum was in the offing to possibly sugar-coat the deal.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, flanked by External Affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee and Home minister Shivraj Patil, this morning met senior BJP leaders L K Advani and Jaswant Singh, and although the main topic of discussion was to do with finding solutions to the escalating crisis in Rajasthan, sources said the sticky Indo-US nuclear deal was also discussed.
The sources said the BJP seemed to be veering around to supporting the government on signing the nuclear deal with the US, amounting to a political breakthrough. In that case, when the PM explained the Indian position in parliament, as well as the compromise that would be arrived at with the US, the opposition would not embarrass him about it.
The main concern of the BJP leaders, the sources said, was that the UPA government did not sacrifice the sovereignty and the independence of India’s nuclear weapons programme.
On the other hand, America’s top diplomat Nicholas Burns, met Jaswant Singh this afternoon, then returned to Hyderabad House to carry forward the discussions with his counterpart, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shanker Menon.
Burns had also met BJP leader and former principal secretary to Vajpayee Brajesh Mishra on Thursday, thereby ensuring that the BJP was fully in the loop of what was being discussed with the UPA government.
On the technical side, it seemed too as if both sides were inching closer to what amounts to a breakthrough, although sources said ``they weren’t there yet.’’ A meeting between the PM and Bush in Germany next week also may not result in a breakthrough because that has been curtailed to a mere 20 minutes.
So it seems as if the Indo-US nuclear deal may drag on for another few months, certainly into August-September, when the PM is likely to make another trip to the US.
Still, some of the trickiest issues, to deal with India’s right to reprocess spent fuel from safeguarded reactors in unsafeguarded fast-breeder reactors, were also beginning to see the light. Indian officials said the US could be agreeable to doing this but would not give details of the give-and-take yet.
As for the ``right to return’’ clause in US law, which gave the Americans the right to take back the fuel, the equipment, etc, in case India conducted a test, it seems as if New Delhi will be willing to accept that in principle. However, the government feels that such a scenario will never come to pass, and is therefore willing to accept language that fudges the issue : While it accepts the right, it will not accept that the US exercises that right.
It is increasingly beginning to seem as if a cross- party political solution, both domestically and with the US may well be called upon to crack the problem that has defied the last many rounds of official-level talks.
Burns met BJP leader jaswant singh this afternoon. He had already met brajesh mishra on Thursday, the first day he arrived in delhi. This evening, Burns is expected to meet the prime minister before he flies out of India for the US.
Significantly, a press conference slated for Saturday afternoon after the talks failed to materialize, allowing many to speculate that the talks had not gone as well as expected. Official sources now said that they would issue a joint statement later this evening.
Clearly, both sides will now leave it to their top political bosses, prime minister manmohan singha and US president george bush when they meet on the margins of the G-8 meeting in germany next week.
It is also now being said that an ``agreement in principle’’ will be forged during the PM-Bush meeting in germany, and that the final signature may be postponed for later. That could take place even during the PM’s meeting to the US, likely in September this year.
There are two reasons why the BJP may have seemingly changed its mind over the last few weeks, and could be coming round to supporting the PM on the nuclear deal : First of all, during the BJP’s tenure in government, then principal secretary Brajesh Mishra had secretly committed to the US government that India would be ready to put 14 reactors under fullscope safeguards.
But the BJP government fell and that deal could not be carried out.
Under the circumstances, the Congress government has done one better, by keeping 8 reactors out of the safeguarded list, thereby allowing them to be used for india’s military programme.
Secondly, the BJP is also concerned by the hardline that the RSS is once again taking on a variety of issues, including the nuclear deal. for example, after Burns met brajesh mishra on Thursday, RSS leaders said they were concerned about the talks they would have had.
Officials have been wrestling with three major issues for the last many months, and while they have made considerable headway, they have not been able to arrive at any solutions yet.
These include the penalties India will have to pay if it conducts a nuclear test in the future, guarantees for fuel supply for Indian nuclear reactors even if other problems emerge in the bilateral relationship, as well as india’s right to reprocess the spent fuel that comes out of the safeguarded reactors.
On the first issue, India maintains that it will not relinquish its right to conduct a nuclear test. But according to the US law, if any country that is not one of the nuclear -5 nations (which India is not) conducts a nuclear test, the US will invoke the ``right of return’’ clause. That is, all equipment, including reactors, as well as fuel, etc, will have to be returned to the US.
Since this ``right to return’’ clause is part of US law, no bilateral negotiation with any country can change it. It seems as if India will have to accept this clause in the law. However, according to Indian officials, while it may accept the law, it will not accept the US right to exercise the law. Meaning, the manner in which the language of the law will be written will come to the aid of a political solution on both sides.
As for the right to reprocess, the US argument is that India cannot expect to reprocess the fuel that is meant only for its safeguarded reactors, in fast-breeder reactors that are not part of any safeguarded list.
However, according to the Indian side, the US will have to accept and trust – if both sides are going to have such a strong relationship in the future – that New Delhi will have to reprocess the spent fuel, rather than allow it to accumulate over time.
Sources recalled how, during the previous two landmark nuclear agreements as well, that is on July 18, 2005, as well as on March 2, 2006, it was Bush who had told his foreign minister, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice that he wanted ``a deal with India.’’ In 2005, then foreign minister K.Natwar Singh had also played a key role in pushing forward the deal.
ENDS
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